“China’s grain imports have not taken away anyone else’s livelihood.” How do leading scholars view China’s food security situation?

Prioritize domestic production, ensure domestic capacity, maintain a moderate level of imports, and rely on technological support.

Over the past decade, while China’s grain production has continued to rise, its grain imports have also been increasing. In 2021, China’s grain output reached 680 million tons, up 70 million tons from ten years earlier. At the same time, China’s grain imports totaled 164.54 million tons last year, including 90 million tons of soybeans and more than 60 million tons of cereals.

Under such a supply landscape, how should we assess China’s food security situation? Ye Xingqing, Director of the Department of Rural Economy at the Development Research Center of the State Council, argued at the “International Forum on the Development and Investment in Modern Grain Supply Chains,” held during the 2022 China International Fair for Trade in Services, that… “Prioritize domestic resources, rely on domestic production, ensure sufficient capacity, maintain a moderate level of imports, and leverage technological support.” The national food security strategy rests on two core pillars: first, how to boost domestic production; and second, how to effectively implement the policy of “moderate imports.”

Ye Xingqing stated that, in ensuring China’s food security, moderate imports are equally important. He cautioned that, as the world is undergoing a transformation unseen in a century, we must maintain a clear understanding of the complexities—and even the risks—associated with moderate imports. This is because the global security landscape is undergoing profound adjustments, and trends such as deglobalization, the COVID‑19 pandemic, regional conflicts, and great‑power competition will all exert impacts on China’s overseas food supply chains.

Among these factors, the frequency and magnitude of grain price fluctuations are intensifying, with a pronounced impact on China, a major grain importer. Moreover, certain countries’ imposition of various export restrictions has further fueled price volatility. In addition, China’s grain import sources are highly concentrated, with the majority of its grain and oil imports coming from just a handful of nations, raising concerns about the security of its overseas supply chain. Coupled with China’s massive import volumes, this situation also makes it vulnerable to media narratives abroad that claim “China’s large grain stockpiles are driving up international prices.”

Ye Xingqing stated that, under such complex circumstances, China must adopt a multi-pronged approach to enhance the security of its overseas food supply chains.

First, we will refine the top-level design, implement a diversified strategy for agricultural imports, and support enterprises in expanding overseas. Enhance control over key global logistics hubs and strengthen supply chain resilience. 。

Second, Step up efforts to cultivate global agribusiness giants. Ye Xingqing stated that the structure of the global grain trade market has undergone significant changes, with new major grain traders emerging; China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) has also made notable progress. To address certain bottlenecks and pain points encountered by Chinese enterprises as they expand overseas, greater support is needed in areas such as finance and human resources.

Third, China must… Ensuring national food security through appropriate levels of imports. And this is particularly important. Ye Xingqing stated that China’s grain imports are substantial, and it is essential to strengthen communication and dialogue on food policy on the international stage, adding, “To reassure everyone, China’s imports are not taking away others’ livelihoods.”

Ye Xingqing stated, “Take soybeans as an example: over the past two decades, China’s imports have continued to grow, accounting for 60% of global imports. At the same time, soybean imports in other countries have also been increasing. China’s soybean trade exhibits the typical characteristics of incremental trade, indicating that China has not encroached on the market shares of other nations nor posed a threat to their import volumes. We should make this point clear.”

In addition, Ye Xingqing stated, “China should also make clear to the international community that its relatively high share of global grain stocks is the result of imports accumulated over the past few years—when global grain prices remained low—combined with a steady increase in domestic grain production.” He added, “Over the past two years, China’s inventories of major staple grains and their share of global stocks have been declining. This reflects China’s efforts to ease global food‑supply pressures by releasing strategic reserves, thereby contributing to the maintenance of global food security.”

Source: Global network