2022 National Forecast of the Occurrence Trends of Major Crop Pests and Diseases

Recently, the National Agricultural Technology Center convened experts from research, educational, and extension institutions to conduct a joint analysis of the 2022 national trends in the occurrence of major crop pests and diseases. Based on a comprehensive assessment of factors such as pest and disease inoculum levels, cropping systems, crop distribution, and climate, it is projected that major pests and diseases affecting key food crops—including wheat, rice, maize, and potatoes—will re‑emerge at elevated levels, with a total affected area of 2.026 billion mu‑times. This represents increases of 13.8% compared with 2021 and 10.1% relative to the 2016–2020 average, posing a threat to more than 70% of China’s grain‑producing regions. Furthermore, the projected area affected by major quarantine‑regulated pests and diseases—such as citrus Huanglongbing, fire blight of pears, red imported fire ants, potato beetles, and codling moths—is estimated at 9.89 million mu, up 11.9% from 2021 and 8.7% from the 2016–2020 average. In some areas, there is a risk of renewed outbreaks and further spread, necessitating intensified and more frequent monitoring, timely implementation of effective control measures, and proactive efforts to prevent the spread of these threats and mitigate yield losses.

I. Major Wheat Diseases and Pests

The area expected to be affected by the “three diseases and one pest” of wheat is projected at 450 million mu‑times, up 4.8% from 2021 and 4.2% above the average for 2016–2020.

1. Wheat Fusarium Head Blight

Nationwide, the affected area totals 90 million mu, with over 250 million mu requiring preventive and control measures. Among these, the wheat-growing regions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Jianghuai Plain, and southern Huanghuai—particularly in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, and southern Shandong—are at risk of moderate to severe outbreaks, while the wheat-growing areas of North China, Southwest China, and Northwest China face a moderate risk of epidemic spread.

2. Wheat stripe rust

The disease has affected 30 million mu nationwide. Among these areas, wheat-growing regions in northern Hubei, southern Henan, southern Gansu, the Guanzhong Plain of Shaanxi, and the Ili River Valley in Xinjiang are experiencing relatively severe outbreaks; while most of Hubei, central and western Anhui, central and northern Henan, southeastern Shandong, the Sichuan Basin, central and eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, and eastern Qinghai are seeing moderate outbreaks, with localized areas at risk of more severe epidemics.

3. Wheat sheath blight

The nationwide affected area totaled 120 million mu. Among these, wheat-growing regions in central and northern Jiangsu, most of Henan, southeastern Shandong, and much of Hubei experienced relatively severe outbreaks, while other major wheat-producing areas in the Jianghuai, Huanghuai, and North China regions saw moderate infestations.

4. Wheat aphids

The nationwide affected area totaled 210 million mu. Among these, the wheat-growing regions of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain—including Henan, Shandong, Hebei, and Shanxi—experienced moderate to severe outbreaks, while most of the wheat-growing areas in the Jianghuai, Southwest, and Northwest regions saw moderate infestations.

II. Major Rice Diseases and Pests

The projected area affected by the “three pests and two diseases” of rice is 1.03 billion mu‑times, up 13.6% from 2021 and 7.1% above the average for 2016–2020.

5. Rice planthoppers

The nationwide infestation covered 310 million mu. Among these, the brown planthopper occurred at a severe level in the rice-growing regions of Jiangnan, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and eastern South China, while it was moderate in other southern rice areas, with a total affected area of 160 million mu. The whitebacked planthopper occurred at a severe level in the eastern rice-growing areas of Southwest China, and at a moderate level in other southern rice regions, covering a total area of 150 million mu nationwide.

6. Rice leafroller

The nationwide affected area totaled 220 million mu. Among these, the rice-growing regions of Jiangnan, the lower Yangtze River, and eastern South China experienced relatively severe outbreaks, while other southern rice-growing areas saw moderate infestations.

7. Rice stem borer

The nationwide affected area totaled 200 million mu. Among these, the rice-growing regions of Jiangnan, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the northern part of Southwest China experienced relatively severe outbreaks, while other rice-growing areas saw moderate infestations.

8. Rice sheath blight

The nationwide affected area totaled 240 million mu. Among these, the rice-growing regions of Jiangnan, South China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the northern part of Southwest China, and the southern part of Northeast China experienced relatively severe outbreaks, while the southern part of Southwest China and the northern part of Northeast China saw moderate outbreaks.

9. Rice blast disease

The nationwide affected area totaled 60 million mu. Among these, moderate-to-severe outbreaks were observed in the major production regions of Northeast China, the hilly and mountainous areas of Southern China, and the rice-growing zones along the Yangtze and Huai Rivers, with susceptible varieties facing a high risk of recurrent epidemics.

III. Major Corn Diseases and Pests

The projected area affected by the “three pests and one disease” of maize is 480 million mu‑times, up 21.6% from 2021 and 23.4% from the average of 2016–2020.

10. Fall Armyworm

The nationwide infestation covered 80 million mu. The affected areas encompassed most of the corn-growing regions, with the exception of the western Northwest and the central‑northern Northeast. In the Southwest, South China, the Jiangnan region, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, multiple generations of the pest occurred, with severe damage; in the Jianghuai, Huanghuai, Northwest, and North China regions, the infestation was moderate.

11. Sticky Insect Trap

The nationwide infestation covered 60 million mu. Overall, corn-growing regions across the country are experiencing moderate outbreaks, with localized areas in North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China expected to suffer concentrated damage.

12. Corn borer

The nationwide affected area totaled 260 million mu. The pest occurred widely across all major corn-growing regions, with severe outbreaks in parts of the Huang-Huai summer corn belt and moderate outbreaks in most of Northeast China, North China, the Jianghuai region, and certain areas of Southwest China.

13. Southern Rust

The nationwide affected area totals 80 million mu. The Huanghuaihai summer maize region faces a moderate-to-severe epidemic risk.

IV. Pests and Diseases of Other Food Crops

14. Potato Late Blight

Across the country, the affected area totals 30 million mu, with a total of 40 million mu‑times requiring preventive and control measures. Among these, the Wuling Mountains, eastern Southwest China, and eastern Northwest China are experiencing severe outbreaks, while other parts of the Southwest and Northwest, as well as North China and Northeast China, are seeing moderate outbreaks.

15. Grass Armyworm

The nationwide affected area totaled 20 million mu. Among these, there is a potential for localized severe outbreaks in Inner Mongolia and its surrounding regions, while most of North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China are expected to experience relatively mild infestations, with Inner Mongolia accounting for over 60% of the total affected area.

16. Locust

Nationwide, locust outbreaks have affected an area of 16 million mu. Specifically, the East Asian migratory locust is prevalent in the Bohai Bay region, the floodplain areas along the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the waterlogged lake and reservoir zones of North China; the Asian migratory locust occurs in the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin of Xinjiang, along lakes and rivers, as well as in localized reed‑marsh wetlands in Northeast China; and the Tibetan migratory locust is found in the river valleys of the Jinsha, Yalong, Yarlung Tsangpo, and Tongtian Rivers in Sichuan and Tibet, with some areas potentially experiencing high‑density infestations. Furthermore, the possibility of migratory locusts entering border regions—such as those between China and Kazakhstan, China and Laos, and China and Nepal—from abroad cannot be ruled out.

V. Major Quarantine Pests and Diseases

17. Citrus Huanglongbing

Nationwide, the affected area totals 2.2 million mu, with over 20 million mu‑times requiring preventive and control measures. Specifically, moderate outbreaks are occurring in northeastern Guangxi, southern Hunan, southern Jiangxi, central and northern Hainan, and central and southern Yunnan, posing a high risk of recurrent epidemics in citrus‑growing regions such as navel oranges, sugar tangerines, and satsuma mandarins. Light to moderate outbreaks are observed across most of Fujian and Guangdong, as well as in northern Yunnan, while southern Sichuan and localized areas in Guizhou experience only mild infestations. There is a high risk of the epidemic spreading to Chongqing, central and northern Hubei and Hunan, central Jiangxi, eastern Sichuan, and western and northern Zhejiang.

18. Fire Blight of Pears

Nationwide, the affected area totals 500,000 mu, with over 4 million mu requiring preventive and control measures. Specifically, fire blight of pears is occurring at a moderate level across most pear- and apple-growing regions in Xinjiang, with severe outbreaks in localized areas; in parts of Gansu’s Hexi Corridor, it is also at a moderate level. Asian pear fire blight has been reported sporadically at a mild level in certain counties in northwestern Zhejiang, eastern Anhui, and northeastern Chongqing. There is a high risk that the disease will continue to spread into major apple and pear production areas.

19. Red Imported Fire Ant

The nationwide affected area totaled 6.5 million mu. Among these, most of Guangdong, most of Hainan, the central and eastern parts of Guangxi, the central and southern parts of Fujian, southern Jiangxi, the eastern and southern parts of Yunnan, and southern Sichuan experienced generally mild outbreaks, with localized patches showing more severe infestations; while scattered, patchy occurrences were observed in most of Chongqing, southern Hunan, southern Guizhou, the central and southern parts of Zhejiang, and central Hubei.

20. Colorado potato beetle

The nationwide infested area totals 90,000 mu. In northern Xinjiang, the overall incidence is relatively mild, with localized outbreaks of moderate to severe severity; in border regions of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and other provinces adjacent to Russia, there is a potential for the introduction of pest sources from abroad.

21. Codling moth

The nationwide affected area totals 600,000 mu. Among these, most of Xinjiang, western Gansu, eastern Heilongjiang, central and eastern Jilin, southwestern Liaoning, northeastern Hebei, northern Tianjin, central Inner Mongolia, and parts of northern Ningxia have experienced mild outbreaks, with localized areas reporting more severe infestations. There is a high risk of the epidemic spreading to major apple-producing regions such as Shaanxi, Shandong, eastern Gansu, and central Hebei.

Source: Pest and Disease Monitoring and Forecasting Division, Pest and Disease Control Division, and Plant Quarantine Division of the National Agricultural Technology Center