2022 Forecast of Pesticide Demand Trends
Pesticide demand in 2022 is expected to remain broadly stable, with a slight decline compared to 2021; pesticide prices are generally rising, while demand for high-efficiency crop protection machinery is growing steadily.
2. Insecticide (acaricide)
The use of insecticides (and acaricides) has declined year after year over the past decade, and this downward trend continued in 2022. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the complete phase-out of China’s last ten highly toxic pesticides, demand for their substitutes is expected to rise. Moreover, as the cultivation of genetically modified crops is gradually expanded, pesticide applications are likely to decline further; however, overall, there is limited room for additional reductions in insecticide usage.
Organophosphates: Due to the relatively high toxicity and declining efficacy of organophosphate insecticides, market demand has decreased. In particular, with the comprehensive ban on highly toxic pesticides, the use of organophosphate insecticides is expected to decline further.
Carbamates: Carbamate pesticides are characterized by strong selectivity, high efficacy, broad spectrum activity, low toxicity to humans and livestock, easy degradation, and minimal residual toxicity, and they are widely used in agriculture. The active ingredients used in large quantities include: indoxacarb, isoprocarb, pirimicarb, and thiophanate-methyl. 。
Indoxacarb exhibits excellent insecticidal activity against lepidopteran pests, effectively controlling a wide range of pests on crops such as cereals, fruits, and vegetables, while being environmentally friendly; its demand continues to rise. 。
Pyrethroids: This represents a decline compared with the previous year. Lambda‑cyhalothrin, cyfluthrin, fenpropathrin, and bifenthrin are expected to command a significant market share. Among them, the representative varieties Lambda-cyhalothrin It can be used to control lepidopteran, coleopteran, hemipteran, and dipteran pests in fruit trees, vegetables, tea plants, and dryland cereals. With excellent efficacy and reasonable pricing, its market share has been steadily increasing in several provinces, and it is poised to become the leading pyrethroid insecticide in Guangxi.
Neonicotinoid insecticides: There has been an increase compared with the previous year. Imidacloprid, acetamiprid, thiamethoxam, and nitenpyram will account for a substantial share, while thiacloprid, clothianidin, and flonicamid are expected to see particularly strong growth.
Diamide insecticides: There has been an increase compared with the previous year. Chlorantraniliprole and tetrachlorantraniliprole hold substantial market shares, while tetrazolinamide and bromcyhalin are expected to gain ground.
Other types of insecticides: Demand has increased compared with the previous year. Products such as triflumizole, buprofezin, pymetrozine, cartap, Bacillus thuringiensis, flufenoxuron, and abamectin are expected to command a significant market share.
Acaricide: There was a decline compared with the previous year. Among these, demand was particularly strong for mineral oil, lime-sulfur preparations, etoxazole, pyridaben, spirotetramat, bifenazate, and etoxazole‑nitrile.
Fungicide usage is expected to increase in 2022.
The varieties used in larger quantities include: Copper sulfate, mancozeb, carbendazim, thiophanate‑methyl, tricyclazole, chlorothalonil, tebuconazole, isoprothiolane, prochloraz, triadimefon, kasugamycin, copper hydroxide, difenoconazole, pyraclostrobin, propiconazole, metalaxyl, azoxystrobin, mancozeb‑based products, dimethomorph, ziram, Bacillus subtilis, procymidone, hexaconazole, and mefenoxam, among others.
The varieties with increases of 10% or more are (listed in descending order): Osthole, Bacillus subtilis, oxadixyl, amino‑oligosaccharides, carbendazim‑thiophanate‑methyl, pyraclostrobin, azoxystrobin, kasugamycin, cyprodinil, pyrimidine nucleoside antibiotics, aluminum tris(ethyl phosphonate), lentinan, mancozeb‑based products, epoxiconazole, difenoconazole, cyproconazole, triadimefon, isoprothiolane, ethirimol, prochloraz, and others.
Affected by domestic market saturation, overcapacity, and intensifying competition, herbicide sales in 2022 are expected to remain broadly flat or decline slightly compared with 2021. However, driven by the accelerated transfer of land-use rights and the widespread adoption of simplified, labor‑saving cultivation practices, demand for herbicides is likely to continue rising, even as weed resistance to herbicides becomes an increasingly pressing issue.
Overall trends. Herbicide use has been on the rise over the past decade, with the emergence of herbicide‑resistant weeds further driving demand. As herbicide application rates have increased across regions, associated adverse impacts have also become more pronounced. In response, local authorities have implemented several measures: first, plant protection agencies in some areas have explicitly prohibited the use of certain herbicides on specific crops; second, the incorporation of biological adjuvants into herbicide formulations has enhanced their translocation and spread on target crops, thereby reducing the overall amount of herbicide required; and third, leveraging the principles of crop interrelationships—both synergistic and antagonistic effects—has helped minimize herbicide applications.
In the coming years, herbicides will remain one of the key levers for reducing pesticide use in China.
The crop protection products with annual usage exceeding 2,000 tons, listed in descending order, are: glyphosate (ammonium salt, sodium salt, potassium salt), acetochlor, atrazine, glufosinate, butachlor, bentazon, isoproturon, 2,4‑D, and pretilachlor.
2,4-D Butyl Ester: Since China has completely halted the production of 2,4-D butyl ester as of January 29, 2021, demand has declined significantly, and the remaining inventory will be rapidly depleted.
Total‑kill herbicides: Following the comprehensive ban on paraquat, the new contact‑type herbicide diquat has emerged as a hot‑topic product due to its rapid weed‑killing efficacy and broad spectrum of control, particularly its high effectiveness against weeds that have developed resistance to glyphosate and paraquat.
Glufosinate: Farmer acceptance is steadily increasing, and application rates are rising.
New-generation herbicides with resistance‑breaking activity: the use of florasulam, diclofop‑methyl, and others is on the rise.
Due to the large acreage of late-sown wheat this year, the task of strengthening weak seedlings is particularly challenging. Coupled with the expanding use of plant protection drones and other aerial application methods, the following categories of products are expected to see significant growth: plant growth regulators, plant health‑related agrochemicals, and agricultural adjuvants.
6. Plant protection machinery
The mechanization of plant protection is accelerating, and the scale of socialized services is expanding, driving the rapid adoption of high-efficiency plant-protection machinery.
The area covered by aerial chemical operations has increased. Specialized pest‑control organizations and plant‑protection cooperatives have expanded rapidly, and pest‑management practices are evolving—from single‑service contract operations to end-to-end solutions. Plant‑protection drones are playing an increasingly prominent role, and aerial application is on a clear upward trend, particularly in the control of rice and wheat diseases and pests, where its share is steadily growing.
The use of specialized boom sprayers is accelerating. Boom sprayers have been widely adopted in major crop‑growing regions for maize, wheat, potatoes, soybeans, rice, sunflowers, and other key crops; specialized pesticide‑application equipment for fruit trees and vegetables is now commonly used in modern orchards and greenhouse facilities.
Source: National Agricultural Technology Extension Center
