Early Warning: Many Provinces Have Entered the Critical Period for Pest Control!

　Recently, the National Agricultural Technology Extension Center, in 2021 nationwide… Corn At the consultation meeting on the forecast of major pest and disease outbreaks during the mid-to-late growth stages of rice, it was projected that this year… Corn In the mid-to-late stages, pest and disease outbreaks were generally severe, affecting a total of 840 million mu‑times, with insect pests accounting for 570 million mu‑times and diseases for 270 million mu‑times. Migratory pests such as the fall armyworm, the third-generation armyworm, the second-generation grass webworm, and the cotton bollworm have… Corn The production threat is significant, Corn Stem borers, southern corn rust, and brown spot are widespread, with a potential for a severe resurgence of southern rust. For mid- to late-season rice, major pests and diseases are expected to occur at generally higher-than-average levels, affecting 920 million mu‑times in total—630 million mu‑times from insect pests and 290 million mu‑times from diseases. Brown planthopper and sheath blight are likely to be severe; stem borer, two-brooded stem borer, and rice blast will occur at moderate to severe levels; rice false smut will be moderate; and southern rice black-streaked dwarf disease is expected to be mild.
　　Recent Trends in Pest Outbreaks
　　As of August 11, the fall armyworm has infested 16.47 million mu across 1,074 counties (districts and county-level cities) in 23 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government. Compared with the same period last year, the number of affected provinces has decreased by one, and the number of affected counties has fallen by 120. This year, the pest migrated earlier into the Jianghuai, Huanghuai, and northern regions; in Changdao, Shandong, and Tianjin, the first sightings occurred on July 17 and July 21, respectively—more than a month earlier than in the previous two years. Among the newly affected counties and cities since July, over 90% are located north of the Yangtze River. Field outbreaks remain concentrated in southwestern and southern China, particularly in Yunnan and Guangxi, which account for 93% of the total infested area. Recently, moth peaks have continued to occur in the southwest, south China, and the Yangtze River basin. Since late July, daily moth catches in many locations—including Jiangcheng, Dali, Binchuan, and Shidian in Yunnan; Jiangyong, Wugang, Xinning, Jianghua, and Lixian in Hunan; Xiajiang in Jiangxi; Heshan and Boluo in Guangdong; and Yixing in Jiangsu—have ranged from 30 to 70 moths. In early August, Yizhou, Guangxi, recorded a cumulative trap catch of 216 moths, with a peak daily count of 48.
　　The current infestation of the third generation of armyworms covers 10 million mu. Overall, the situation is relatively mild in the Southwest, the Huanghuai region, and North China; however, localized areas in Guizhou, Henan, and Hebei have recently experienced high-density, concentrated damage. In particular, Huixian and Linzhou in Xinxiang City, Henan, are severely affected, with re‑infested plots totaling approximately 220 mu, an average of 250 larvae per 100 plants, and peak densities reaching as high as 2,000 larvae per 100 plants. In Bijie, Guizhou, certain fields show moderately severe outbreaks, with peak densities of up to 750 larvae per 100 plants. In Wu’an, Hebei, localized areas… Corn The pest population on the field was 156 individuals. Corn The lower leaves are severely damaged. In early August, moth peaks persisted in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and other regions; in Xingping, Shaanxi, the peak day saw 10,000 moths, while in Yanchi, Ningxia, the cumulative trap catch from July 29 to August 1 totaled 2,834 moths.
　　Since early August, adult first-generation grass cutworms have continued to produce peak moth flights in eastern and central Inner Mongolia, northern Shanxi, and northern Hebei. According to high-altitude light-trap counts, Manzhouli City in Inner Mongolia recorded over 10,000 moths on August 4; Xinghe County in Ulanqab reported 250,000 moths on August 6; Dai County in Xinzhou, Shanxi, saw an average daily catch of 29,000 moths from August 6 to 7; Yanqing District in Beijing recorded 2,300 moths on August 9, with eggs observed the following day; and Kangbao County in Zhangjiakou, Hebei, reported field counts as high as 10,000 moths per hundred steps on August 8.
　　Affected by the earlier typhoon “Yinhua”, Corn Southern rust has already spread to the summer corn-growing areas along and north of the Huai River. Corn In the main production areas, the current disease incidence is the most severe it has been in the past five years. In Dongtai, Jiangsu, a survey conducted in early July revealed a 3% incidence of diseased fields, with an average plant‑disease rate of 1%–4% and a diseased‑leaf rate of 0.8%. In northern Anhui, symptoms appeared in late July, with the first signs emerging one week earlier than in the previous year’s severe outbreak; recently, the disease has been spreading rapidly, with an average plant‑disease rate of 2% and an average diseased‑leaf rate of 1%.
　　Multiple factors make pests and diseases more likely to occur.
　　At present, most of Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China are experiencing spring. Corn At the flowering and silk‑exuding stage, with some areas entering the milk‑ripe stage, most of the summer… Corn In the jointing to tasseling–silking stage; spring in the Southwest region. Corn Entering maturity, summer Corn Most areas are in the stages from spinning to milky maturity. In various regions, late-sown summer… Corn And early-sown autumn Corn Currently, the crop is in the sowing to seedling stage, and it is a fresh‑eating sweet variety. Corn The concentrated cultivation of forage crops and silage provides an abundant food source for migratory pests such as the fall armyworm and the oriental armyworm, facilitating their dispersal during migration and subsequent return to cause damage.
　　According to forecasts from the National Meteorological Center, during the middle and latter half of August, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Jianghuai region, the Huanghuai area, North China, and most of Northeast China are expected to experience above-normal rainfall, with some areas—particularly the Jianghuai region, much of North China, and the central and southern parts of Northeast China—seeing more than 20% above normal. This weather pattern will favor the migration and damage caused by pest outbreaks as well as the spread and proliferation of plant diseases. In the latter part of August, one to two typhoons may form and move northward, creating favorable conditions for the occurrence of various pests and diseases, including the fall armyworm, the oriental armyworm, and southern rust.
　　Launch the “Save Grain from Pests” Defense Campaign
　　On August 12, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs convened a video conference to re‑mobilize and redeploy efforts to control major pests and diseases affecting autumn grain crops, urging all localities to take swift action, resolutely win the tough battle of prevention and control, and ensure a bumper harvest by safeguarding grain yields from pest damage.
　　The bulk of annual grain production comes from the autumn harvest. At present, crops in the fields are well‑seeded and growing vigorously, so securing a bumper autumn yield hinges on disaster prevention and mitigation, with the key being effective control of major crop diseases and pests. According to the meeting’s analysis, the current baseline for the occurrence of these threats is relatively high, and upcoming weather conditions are favorable. It is projected that, during August and September, migratory and epidemic pests and diseases—including rice stem borers, fall armyworm, grass cutworm, rice blast, and potato late blight—will reach moderate to severe levels, making the task of prevention and control particularly challenging.
　　All localities must fully recognize the critical importance of preventing and controlling major autumn pests and diseases, and earnestly implement meticulous and effective control measures. In terms of objectives, they must resolutely achieve “two guarantees” and uphold “one bottom line”: ensuring that all areas at risk of major autumn grain pests and diseases are fully protected, and preventing large-scale outbreaks; and keeping losses caused by major pests and diseases within the 5% threshold.
　　In terms of prevention and control strategies, we must adhere to the principle of a nationwide coordinated approach, prioritizing key regions, major pests and diseases, and critical stages; firmly assigning responsibility, strengthening organizational mobilization, and implementing zonal management and joint prevention and control. As for specific measures, we need to enhance monitoring and early warning, provide timely guidance and supervision, vigorously promote integrated pest management and green control methods, and strengthen technical guidance at crucial junctures to ensure effective disease and pest management and… Pesticide Reduction.
　　In terms of prevention and control support, fully leveraging pest and disease management funds, overcoming the impact of the COVID‑19 pandemic, and intensifying… Pesticide Strengthen the scheduling and allocation of agricultural inputs to ensure adequate market supply and meet epidemic prevention and control needs. At the same time, intensify research on key issues that constrain pest and disease management, strive to address existing shortcomings, and enhance our capacity to safeguard grain production through effective pest control.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Pest and Disease Forecasting Division; Author: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Pest and Disease Forecasting Division