A rising trend over the past 60 years! High aphid risk in the main winter wheat-producing regions of northern China!

On April 21–22, Tang Renjian, Director of the Central Rural Work Office and Party Secretary and Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, emphasized during a field inspection in Hunan that ensuring this year’s grain production is of paramount importance. He called for focused efforts on key links and the effective management of abandoned farmland, fully tapping the potential of grain production by ensuring that no land lies fallow, no season goes idle, no planting gap remains, and no subsidy shortfall persists. The goal is to plant all eligible land, maximize acreage, and provide all due subsidies, striving to expand the area under grain cultivation, boost yields per unit, and secure a bumper harvest.
Currently, most of northern China is in winter. Wheat From the tillering to booting stage, most of the Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Southwest regions are at the heading and flowering stage, while parts of the Southwest have entered the milky ripening stage. At present, in most areas, winter… Wheat The developmental stage is near the long-term average for this time of year or 3 to 10 days earlier, with vigorous growth; however, frequent rainy and overcast conditions in areas such as Jianghan and Jianghuai are affecting… Wheat Heading and grain-filling are unfavorable.
I. Spring temperatures have remained above normal for several consecutive years, and in northern regions during winter… Wheat The climatic risk of aphid outbreaks in major production areas is on the rise.
     Wheat Aphids can cause Wheat Insufficient grain filling, a decline in 1,000‑grain weight, and reduced nutrient content in the grains all pose serious threats. Wheat Yield and quality; its occurrence and development are closely linked to above‑average spring temperatures, particularly high temperatures and limited rainfall in May. Since the beginning of the 21st century, northern regions… Wheat In the main producing regions, spring temperatures have remained above normal for several consecutive years. Wheat The average annual area affected by aphids exceeds 12 million hectares, with a trend toward an increasingly earlier first appearance and escalating levels of damage. According to… Wheat Analysis of the aphid climate‑related disaster index indicates that, over the past 60 years, the major winter wheat‑producing regions in northern China… Wheat The climatic risk of aphid outbreaks has been on the rise, with a particularly pronounced increase since the 1990s. Spatially (Figure 1), western and north-central Henan, southern Shandong, the Beijing–Tianjin region, central and northern Hebei, and western Shanxi constitute areas of moderate risk, while northern Henan, central and northern Shandong, southern Hebei, and southeastern Shanxi are classified as high-risk zones.
II. Forecast for the 2021 main winter wheat-producing regions in northern China Wheat The meteorological rating for the occurrence and development of aphids during the heading stage remains relatively high.
Since March, northern winter Wheat In most of the main production areas, temperatures are 1–2°C above normal, which is conducive to the proliferation of wheat aphid populations. It is forecast that in late April, the winter wheat-growing regions of North China and northern Huanghuai will experience below-normal precipitation; in May, most of the northern winter wheat region will see above-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation, which overall will be favorable for… Wheat Aphid population increase and damage during the heading stage.
According to Wheat A meteorological forecasting model for the occurrence and development of aphids, along with projections of future weather and climate trends, indicates that from late April to mid-May, central and southern North China and most of the Huanghuai region will… Wheat The meteorological risk level for aphid outbreaks during the heading stage is relatively high, with particularly elevated risks in northern Henan, western Shandong, southern Hebei, and southeastern Shanxi (Figure 2).
III. Concerns and Recommendations
Although in recent years Wheat The efficacy of aphid control has improved significantly, but given that… Wheat The climatic risk of aphid outbreaks during the heading stage is trending upward, and this year in the Huang-Huai-Hai region… Wheat The meteorological rating for the occurrence and development of aphids during the heading stage remains high. Recommendations: In the Huanghuaihai wheat-growing region, increase the frequency of monitoring; take advantage of the favorable weather in late April—mostly sunny with little rain—to promptly assess aphid populations in the fields. Once the threshold for control is reached, initiate timely pest management to effectively curb aphid damage and ensure… Wheat High quality and high yield.

Source: National Meteorological Center Author: National Meteorological Center