It is forecast that the outlook for pesticide demand in 2019 will be better than this year.

　　2018 Pesticide Characteristics of Equipment Use
　　2018 Pesticide Usage has declined slightly, with the equivalent of 300,000 tons in terms of pure active ingredient. Overall, in 2018, the incidence of pests and diseases was generally mild, and… Pesticide The integrated promotion of yield‑enhancing, input‑reducing technologies has resulted in… Pesticide Productivity has increased, and the amount of pesticide used has decreased. However, in some regions, resistance to the rice stem borer has intensified in paddy fields, weed resistance to herbicides has worsened in direct-seeded rice paddies, and in fruit trees, potatoes, vegetables, … Soybean The increase in the planting area of cash crops has, to a certain extent, promoted… Pesticide Increased usage. From the specifics Pesticide From a variety perspective:
　　Pesticides: Overall usage has decreased.
　　Compared with new‑generation formulations, organophosphate insecticides have seen declining market demand and sales due to their higher toxicity. The combined sales volume of the top five organophosphate products—parathion, chlorpyrifos, phoxim, triazophos, and acephate—fell from 53,300 tonnes in 2009 to 38,800 tonnes in 2017, reflecting a clear downward trend. Meanwhile, the use of diamide‑based, neonicotinoid‑based, and avermectin‑based products has been increasing, and in some regions these have already become the dominant classes of insecticides.
　　Acaricides: Total usage has increased.
　　Mineral oil, crystalline lime-sulfur formulations, and new acaricides such as etoxazole have seen significant increases in usage, while products like flufenoxuron, fluazinam, spirodiclofen, and spirotetramat are gradually gaining market favor.
　　Fungicides: Total usage remained stable.
　　- Due to the increasing development of resistance, the application rate of metalaxyl has decreased. The use of triazoles, carbendazim, thiophanate‑methyl, and other imidazole‑based fungicides has declined; the application rates of procymidone, iprodione, fludioxonil, dimethomorph, and cyazofamid have remained largely stable; while those of morpholines, amides, and fluopyram have increased. The use of strobilurin‑based fungicides has also risen, with the application rates of azoxystrobin and kresoxim‑methyl remaining steady, and those of pyraclostrobin and trifloxystrobin showing an upward trend.
　　- The use of bactericidal agents such as thifensulfuron‑methyl, kasugamycin, thiophanate‑methyl, and chlorobromoisocyanuric acid has increased, primarily due to the expanded acreage affected by rice bacterial streak and bacterial leaf blight, the growing area of citrus crops susceptible to citrus canker, and the worsening incidence of bacterial diseases in vegetables and other crops.
　　- The application rates of biofungicides and nematicides have increased.
　　Herbicides: Application rates have increased compared with the previous year.
　　- Affected by factors such as the ban on paraquat and the increasing resistance to glyphosate, the usage of both herbicides has declined to varying degrees; meanwhile, following several years of promotion, the application rate of glufosinate has risen significantly.
　　-  Corn The application rates of the major herbicides—such as atrazine and amide‑type herbicides—have declined, while those of sulfonylurea herbicides (including tribenuron‑methyl, bensulfuron‑methyl, pyrazosulfuron‑ethyl, and nicosulfuron) have remained broadly stable.
　　- The application rates of herbicides such as quizalofop‑p‑ethyl, haloxyfop‑P‑methyl, and quinclorac remained stable. Meanwhile, the use of agents like florasulam, cyhalofop‑butyl, oxaziclomefone, and mesotrione has increased due to rising resistance.
　　- The use of new-generation herbicides such as bentazone, amidosulfuron, mesotrione, diclofop‑methyl, and fluroxypyr is increasing.
　　Plant growth regulators, Pesticide Additives and seed Treatment agent
　　In 2018, the area of application for plant growth regulators and plant health products continued to expand.
　　- Brassinolide and other growth regulators saw significant increases in usage, while the application volumes of thidiazuron, forchlorfenuron, benzylaminopurine, paclobutrazol, gibberellic acid, and calcium chlorate also rose, primarily for use on fruit trees.
　　-  Pesticide Additives: Usage has increased. In particular, plant‑oil‑based additives and citrus‑peel essential‑oil additives have seen significant growth, while silicone‑based, mineral‑oil‑based, and nonionic surfactant additives have also risen, benefiting from… Pesticide Driven by the promotion of reduced‑input programs, the rapid expansion of aerial spraying, and the growing resistance of pests and diseases to pesticides—along with the resulting demand for enhanced efficacy—some regions have already mandated that aerial applications must incorporate spray adjuvants.
　　-  seed Treatment agent: dosage increased. Primarily… seed Address the existing market gaps, and by… seed It offers unique advantages in the prevention and control of early-stage crop diseases and pests.
　　- Pesticide‑fertilizer: Application rates have increased. This approach primarily helps to significantly reduce labor costs, and by applying the product to the soil or at an early stage, it enables more effective control of piercing‑sucking pests such as aphids and thrips.
　　Plant protection machinery
　　Small-scale plant protection machinery: Sales of backpack-type small sprayers have declined, motorized misting machines are selling poorly, and electric sprayers now account for the majority of small sprayers.
　　Large and medium-sized agricultural protection equipment: Sales revenue increased slightly, but growth was constrained by purchasing power, resulting in modest sales expansion.
　　Agricultural aviation equipment: Sales of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) surged, with nationwide sales reaching 16,000 units in 2018 and covering over 270 million mu of farmland. By contrast, the use of medium- and large-sized aircraft showed little improvement, with the area treated declining by more than one million mu to 41 million mu.
　　The specialized unified pest control service workforce is experiencing rapid growth.
　　The methods of crop pest and disease management are continually evolving, with specialized control organizations and plant protection cooperatives expanding rapidly. A variety of service models coexist, ranging from full‑service farm management—covering tillage, sowing, pest and disease control, and harvesting—to more targeted, specialized pest and disease‑control services. In 2018, the number of nationwide specialized unified pest‑and‑disease‑management organizations reached 88,000, of which 41,000 were registered with industrial and commercial authorities and filed with agricultural departments. The capacity for unified pest‑and‑disease‑management has improved markedly, with the total area covered exceeding 1.5 billion mu‑times annually, accounting for more than 37% of the country’s cultivated land.
　　2019 Pesticide Outlook on Equipment Usage Trends
　　Affected by the international situation, China’s domestic agricultural production structure will undergo certain adjustments:
　　Oilseeds and food crops: Soybean The planted area will increase, while the potato‑cultivation area will remain essentially unchanged.
　　Vegetables: The planted area has remained largely stable;
　　Fruit category: Apples have been affected by disasters, prompting farmers to step up their efforts; citrus acreage has expanded significantly; bananas are fetching good prices this year, which could lead to a substantial increase in planting area next year; grape acreage may also see some growth.
　　Floriculture and Chinese medicinal herbs: In some regions, production of flowers and Chinese medicinal herbs is being vigorously expanded, and as localities advance the development of distinctive small towns, the acreage devoted to these specialty minor crops is expected to grow significantly.
　　Meta-analysis, in 2019, various crops’ responses to Pesticide The demand outlook may be slightly better than in 2018.
　　Organism Pesticide : Especially microorganisms Pesticide The usage will continue to increase, Pesticide The zero-growth initiative continues to advance, microorganisms Pesticide Factors such as performance improvements, generally milder incidence of diseases and pests, and the need for effective disease and pest control—particularly the growing acceptance among fruit and vegetable growers of soil-applied microbial agents—are driving this trend.
　　Soil treatment agent, seed Treatment agents: Application rates will increase, as the area affected by soilborne pathogens and nematodes continues to expand, for example. Wheat The area affected by stem base rot has expanded, and it is expected that… seed The treatment agent will increase;
　　Bactericidal disease control agents: Application rates are expected to increase, owing to the rising trend in bacterial diseases.
　　Plant growth regulators and plant health products: Their application area will continue to expand, driven by large-scale grain producers’ relentless pursuit of production efficiency and by the fruit and vegetable sector’s emphasis on product quality and yield.
　　 Pesticide Spray adjuvants: usage continues to increase, Pesticide Both the demand for reduced pesticide use and the advancement of drone-based spraying are driving the adoption of adjuvants.
　　Dosage
　　It is expected that in 2019, ... Pesticide The initiative to achieve zero growth in pesticide use continues to advance, and the area under green pest management and integrated pest management is steadily expanding. Pesticide Under the synergistic effect of steadily increasing utilization rates, Pesticide Usage will remain stable.
　　Price
　　Affected by domestic environmental protection policies, Pesticide The machinery industry is becoming more consolidated, with highly polluting small and medium-sized enterprises gradually exiting the market, leading to a reduction in production capacity. In addition, raw material costs are rising, Pesticide Prices, particularly for active ingredients, are expected to remain at elevated levels. If companies that have suspended production during the 2019 spring planting season are still unable to resume operations, this could adversely affect the availability of agricultural chemicals needed for spring‑time farming.
　　Plant protection machinery
　　With strong support from national policies, agricultural drones will continue to enjoy robust growth. Although manual backpack sprayers remain widely used, their adoption is declining year by year, while large and medium-sized application equipment and fixed-wing aircraft are largely stable.
　　Pesticide
　　- In terms of overall volume, the major organophosphate insecticides—trichlorfon, dichlorvos, phoxim, chlorpyrifos, and omethoate—are expected to maintain substantial production and usage levels, ranking among the top in output. Additionally, due to the need for nematode control, thiazophos will continue to see strong demand.
　　- Nicotinic products serve as the leading solutions for controlling piercing-sucking pests, particularly when applied to the soil, seed Processing is suitable for early‑stage formulations and is expected to increase.
　　- The abamectin product market remains stable, with methylaminoabamectin expected to see growth, and other abamectin isomers also projected to increase.
　　- Diamide products currently constitute the mainstay for controlling lepidopteran pests; due to anti-counterfeiting measures, shipments from authorized manufacturers are expected to increase.
　　- Pyriproxyfen is expected to see sluggish growth, while the use of triflumezopyrim is set to increase in the rice planthopper‑control market. Notably, the EU has revoked pyriproxyfen’s registration, which could further undermine the product’s market prospects.
　　- The usage of new-generation insecticides targeting piercing-sucking pests, such as flonicamid, spinosad, and spirotetramat, is expected to increase.
　　- The application rate of biopesticides will increase.
　　Acaricide
　　- The application rates of older acaricides such as pyridaben, tetradifon, hexythiazox, etoxazole, spirodiclofen, flufenoxuron, and abamectin have changed only slightly, whereas the use of newer acaricides—including bifenazate, etofenprox, etoxazole‑nitrile, cyflumetofen, fluazinam, and flufenoxuron—is expected to increase.
　　- The use of acaricides derived from natural products, such as crystalline lime sulfur and sodium rosinate, may increase, while the application rate of mineral oil will certainly rise.
　　Fungicide
　　- The usage of protective fungicides such as mancozeb and other maneb‑based products is expected to increase due to the expansion of acreage devoted to cash crops; meanwhile, the application rates of other protective fungicides—including chlorothalonil, captan, and copper‑based formulations—are likely to remain stable. Notably, the European Union has revoked the registration of captan, which could have implications going forward.
　　- The use of amide fungicides is expected to increase, driven by the widespread adoption of early‑season application techniques for rice. Wheat seed Handling and the expansion of areas under economic crops. Amide fungicides, owing to their long-lasting efficacy and high efficiency, will see increased adoption.
　　- The usage of methoxyacrylate fungicides is expected to increase significantly, as their outstanding plant health benefits will make them increasingly favored by farmers.
　　- The application volume of triazole fungicides is expected to remain stable; although usage on fruit trees has increased, rice, Corn Disease incidence was relatively mild, allowing for a reduction in application rates.
　　- The application rates of fungicides with more serious resistance issues, such as metalaxyl and pyrimethanil, are expected to decline, while conventional agents for controlling oomycetes, like cymoxanil and dimethomorph, are projected to remain stable.
　　- The usage of benzimidazole fungicides such as carbendazim and thiophanate‑methyl is expected to decline. This is due, first, to the emergence of resistance, and second, to the introduction of newer products that have replaced them.
　　Herbicide
　　Herbicide usage is expected to increase, particularly Soybean Field herbicides and paddy‑field herbicides. The former benefited from an expansion in planted acreage, while the latter saw growth driven by an increase in direct‑seeding rice acreage and rising levels of weed resistance.
　　- Used for Soybean The use of diphenyl ether–based fungicides in rice fields will increase;
　　- The herbicide paraquat, which is lethal to plants, is facing a ban; as a result, the use of diquat will increase, glyphosate use will decline, and glufosinate use will rise.
　　- The application rates of sulfonylurea herbicides remained broadly stable;
　　- Herbicides for foliar and stem application in the Poaceae family, such as haloxyfop‑P‑methyl and quizalofop‑p‑ethyl, are expected to remain stable;
　　- Amide‑type herbicides are expected to remain largely unchanged, with the application volume of oxazifluopropyl potentially increasing;
　　- The use of new herbicides targeting resistant weeds, such as florasulam, dicamba, and mesotrione, is expected to increase.
　　Plant growth regulator
　　The use of plant growth regulators is expected to increase. This trend is driven not only by their application on cash crops but also by growing adoption in food crops.
　　- The use of brassinolide-based products has increased significantly, with companies actively promoting their adoption.
　　- The use of gibberellin products has increased due to the expansion of fruit tree cultivation areas.
　　- Calcium chlorate application rates have increased, driven by aggressive promotional efforts by companies;
　　- The application rate of fluroxypyr will increase, and its use on citrus is gaining popularity.
　　- The application rates of chlormequat, mepiquat, etc., remain unchanged;
　　- The application rates of rooting agents such as indole-3-acetic acid, naphthaleneacetic acid, and sodium nitrophenolate will increase slightly;
　　- The application rate of paclobutrazol will decline as concerns about its residues continue to grow, while the use of uniconazole may increase.
　　Spray adjuvant
　　Due to Pesticide The advancement of reduction efforts and the development of drones have led to an increased level of resistance to pesticides among pests, diseases, and weeds. Pesticide The use of additives will increase further.
　　- Plant oil-based adjuvants will be primarily used for aerial spraying:
　　- Mineral oil-based adjuvants will be primarily used on fruit trees;
　　- Plant-derived essential oil-based adjuvants will continue to gain recognition and see growth;
　　- Organosilicon and modified additives, as well as nonionic surfactant‑based adjuvants, will primarily be used on a variety of crops to reduce the dosage of active ingredients and the volume of spray solution.
　　Plant protection machinery
　　- Drone sales will continue to rise sharply, as the effectiveness of drone applications is gaining increasing recognition.
　　- Sales of small spray equipment will continue to decline.
　　- Sales of large and medium-sized medical devices are constrained by purchasing power, and are expected to remain flat or decline slightly.
　　- Large and medium-sized aircraft are expected to continue declining.

Source: China Pesticide Network