It is projected that in 2024, diseases and pests affecting crops such as wheat, rice, and maize will re-emerge on a large scale, with an affected area of 2.33 billion mu‑times.

Recently, the National Agricultural Technology Center convened experts from research, educational, and extension institutions to conduct a consultation on the projected trends of major crop pests and diseases nationwide for 2024. Based on a comprehensive analysis of factors such as pest and disease inoculum levels, cropping systems, crop distribution, and climate, it is anticipated that 22 major pests and diseases will re-emerge across key food crops—including wheat, rice, maize, and potatoes—as well as oilseed and vegetable crops. The total affected area nationwide is estimated at 2.33 billion mu‑times, representing increases of 26.2% compared with 2023 and 18.4% relative to the average actual incidence during 2018–2022. These threats could jeopardize more than 70% of China’s major agricultural production regions, with potential yield losses exceeding 300 billion jin. Intensified and more frequent monitoring, coupled with timely implementation of effective control measures, is urgently needed to mitigate these losses.

I. Major Wheat Diseases and Pests

The projected area affected by the “four diseases and one pest” of wheat is 560 million mu‑times (accounting for 62.9% of the total area affected by wheat diseases and pests), representing increases of 61.3% and 34.9% compared with 2023 and the 2018–2022 average, respectively.

1. Wheat Fusarium Head Blight

The nationwide area at risk of epidemic outbreaks totals 150 million mu, with 250 million mu‑times requiring preventive and control measures. Overall, the epidemic situation is relatively severe; the Jianghan Plain in Hubei, eastern Hubei, northern Zhejiang, most of Anhui, central and southern Jiangsu, and the southern wheat-growing regions of Henan face a high to very high risk of severe outbreaks. Meanwhile, northern Jiangsu, central and northern Henan, southern Shandong, southern Hebei, the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi, and northwestern and eastern Sichuan are experiencing moderate to moderately severe epidemic risks.

2. Wheat stripe rust

The disease has affected 30 million mu nationwide, with an overall moderate incidence. In localized areas—such as the Jianghan Plain in Hubei, the Sichuan Basin, southern Shaanxi, southern Henan, and southern Gansu—the incidence is relatively severe. Meanwhile, in wheat-growing regions including central Henan, central and western Anhui, southeastern Shandong, central and western Yunnan, western Guizhou, the Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi, central and eastern Gansu, eastern Qinghai, southern Ningxia, and the Ili River Valley in Xinjiang—the incidence is moderate.

3. Wheat sheath blight

The nationwide affected area totaled 120 million mu, with overall infestation ranging from moderate to severe. Severe outbreaks were observed across most of Henan, Shandong, and Anhui, as well as in central and northern Jiangsu and southern Hebei, while moderate outbreaks occurred in other wheat-growing regions of the Jianghuai, Huanghuai, and North China plains.

4. Wheat Stem Base Rot

The nationwide affected area totaled 60 million mu, with generally severe outbreaks concentrated in the Huang-Huai wheat-growing region, including central and western Shandong, central and northern Henan, southern Hebei, southwestern Shanxi, and the Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi.

5. Wheat aphids

The nationwide affected area totaled 200 million mu, with overall infestation ranging from moderate to severe. The primary outbreak occurred in the Huanghuai and North China wheat-growing regions, while moderate outbreaks were observed across most of the Jianghuai, Southwest, and Northwest wheat-growing areas.

II. Major Rice Diseases and Pests

The projected area affected by the “three pests and two diseases” of rice is 1.07 billion mu‑times, accounting for 86.3% of the total area under rice pest and disease infestation, an increase of 24.5% compared with 2023 and 20.3% compared with the average of 2018–2022.

6. Rice planthopper

The nationwide affected area totaled 310 million mu‑times, with severe outbreaks concentrated in South China, the northern and eastern parts of Southwest China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while other rice-growing regions in the south experienced moderate infestations.

7. Rice leafroller

The nationwide affected area totaled 220 million mu, with severe outbreaks in eastern South China, eastern Southwest China, the central and western parts of the Jiangnan region, and rice-growing areas along rivers and waterways, while other rice-growing regions in the south experienced moderate infestations.

8. Rice stem borer

The nationwide affected area totaled 240 million mu‑times. Severe outbreaks occurred in the mixed single- and double-cropping rice regions of Jiangnan and the Yangtze River‑adjacent rice-growing areas of Anhui, while moderate to severe infestations were observed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern parts of the southwestern rice-growing regions; elsewhere, most other rice-growing areas experienced moderate levels of infestation.

9. Rice sheath blight

The nationwide affected area totaled 240 million mu, with severe outbreaks concentrated in central and western South China, northern Southwest China, the Jiangnan region, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while other rice-growing areas experienced moderate infestations.

10. Rice blast disease

The nationwide affected area totaled 60 million mu, with an overall moderate incidence. In the major production regions of Northeast China, the hilly and mountainous areas of Southern China, the rice-growing zones along the Yangtze and Huai Rivers, and in areas where susceptible varieties are widely cultivated, the risk of severe head-neck blast epidemics is high.

III. Major Corn Diseases and Pests

The projected area affected by the “four pests and two diseases” of maize is 575 million mu‑times (accounting for 58.7% of the total area affected by maize pests and diseases), representing increases of 5.6% and 6.9% compared with 2023 and the 2018–2022 average, respectively.

11. Fall Armyworm

The nationwide infestation covered 45 million mu, with multiple generations and severe damage in the Southwest, South China, and the Jiangnan region. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Jianghuai, Huanghuai, Northwest, and North China regions, the incidence was relatively mild; however, in some late-sown summer corn areas, the damage was moderate to severe.

12. Sticky insect trap

The nationwide infestation covered 45 million mu, with overall severity ranging from mild to moderate across North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China; localized areas are expected to experience concentrated damage.

13. Corn borer

Nationwide, the affected area totaled 240 million mu. Specifically, the first generation occurred on 75 million mu, with moderate outbreaks across most of Northeast China, the Huanghuai region, and much of Northwest China, as well as in localized areas of Southwest and South China; in Liaoning and Jiangsu, outbreaks were locally severe. The second generation affected 90 million mu, with moderate outbreaks across most of Northeast China and in localized areas of Southwest China and the Huanghuai region. The third generation covered 75 million mu, with relatively severe outbreaks in the Huanghuai–Hai River summer corn‑growing region.

14. Cotton bollworm

The nationwide infestation covered 90 million mu, with severe outbreaks in parts of the Huang-Huai-Hai region and southern Northeast China, primarily involving third- and fourth-generation cotton bollworms.

15. Southern Rust

The nationwide affected area totals 80 million mu, and there is a moderate-to-severe epidemic risk in the Huanghuaihai summer maize region.

16. Large Spot Disease

The nationwide affected area totaled 75 million mu, with generally moderate incidence across most of Northeast China, North China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, and locally severe outbreaks.

IV. Other Major Pests and Diseases Affecting Cereals and Cash Crops

17. Potato Late Blight

The disease has affected 19 million mu nationwide, with an overall moderate incidence. In the Southwest and Wuling Mountain regions, as well as in the Northwest, North China, and Northeast production areas, localized damp and shaded mountainous areas and susceptible cultivars face a high risk of severe to very severe outbreaks.

18. Sclerotinia stem rot of rapeseed

The nationwide affected area totaled 47 million mu, with severe outbreaks in Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan, Anhui, and Jiangxi; moderate outbreaks in the southwestern region, other rapeseed-producing areas along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and Henan; and mild outbreaks in Shaanxi and Gansu.

19. Soybean root rot

The affected area nationwide totaled 19 million mu, with severe outbreaks concentrated in Heilongjiang, moderate outbreaks in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Anhui, and mild or lighter infestations in other soybean-growing regions.

20. Grass Armyworm

The nationwide affected area totaled 20 million mu, with a potential for localized severe outbreaks in Inner Mongolia and its surrounding regions. In most of North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China, the infestation was generally mild, with Inner Mongolia accounting for over 60% of the total affected area.

21. Vegetable Thrips

The disease has affected 20 million mu nationwide, with generally severe outbreaks. It primarily damages crops such as yardlong beans, peppers, cucumbers, scallions, and eggplants. Severe incidence is observed in protected vegetable crops in the Huanghuai and North China regions, as well as in open-field vegetables across the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Southwest, and South China. Spring and the autumn–winter seasons represent the peak periods of occurrence and damage.

22. Tomato leafminer

The disease has affected 1 million mu nationwide, with an overall moderate incidence. In Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Hebei, Liaoning, and Shandong, localized tomato fields have experienced relatively severe outbreaks. Incidence is higher in protected cultivation than in open fields, and autumn‑crop rotations are more severely affected than spring‑crop ones. The peak period of damage occurs from the flowering stage through fruit maturity.

Source: National Agricultural Technology Extension