2021 Forecast of the Mid-to-Late-Season Occurrence Trends of Major Wheat Diseases and Pests in China

Release Date:

2021-04-12

On April 8, the National Agricultural Technology Extension Center convened a teleconference with technical personnel responsible for monitoring and forecasting major wheat diseases and pests from all major wheat-producing provinces, as well as experts from relevant research and educational institutions, to assess the mid- to late-season trends of these threats in China for 2021. Wang Fuxiang, Deputy Director of the National Agricultural Technology Extension Center; Wang Jianqiang, First-Level Researcher at the Department of Crop Production Management of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; and Academician Kang Zhensheng of the Chinese Academy of Engineering attended the meeting and delivered remarks.

Based on a comprehensive analysis of current pest and disease populations, wheat variety distribution and developmental stages, as well as future weather trends, it is projected that mid- to late-season wheat diseases and pests nationwide will be relatively severe this year, with an overall incidence markedly higher than both the long-term average and last year. Specifically, Fusarium head blight is expected to become widespread in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Jianghuai wheat-growing region, affecting an area of approximately 100 million mu; stripe rust will break out extensively in Shaanxi, the Jianghan Plain of Hubei, and the northwestern Hubei wheat belt, covering about 60 million mu; and aphids will occur at high densities in Shandong and Hebei, affecting roughly 200 million mu. In particular, with above‑average rainfall and favorable temperatures in April, stripe rust faces a significant risk of explosive outbreaks in the Huang–Huai–Hai wheat region and other areas. Meanwhile, abundant pathogen inoculum, poor cultivar resistance, and a high degree of temporal overlap between wheat’s susceptible flowering stage and periods of rainfall further elevate the risk of widespread Fusarium head blight.

In the face of this year’s severe situation regarding wheat diseases and pests, the meeting called on all localities to earnestly implement the spirit of the national video conference on the prevention and control of major crop diseases and pests, attach great importance to monitoring and early warning efforts, strengthen field-based surveillance and information coordination, and rigorously conduct consultations and forecasts. This will ensure that monitoring and early warning are accurate and timely, providing solid technical support for the effective control of diseases and pests and for securing a bumper summer grain harvest.

Source: Pest and Disease Monitoring and Forecasting Division, National Agricultural Technology Center

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