From Price Wars to Value Wars: How Will the Agrochemical Industry Break Through the Tight Spot Between Policy and Market by 2025?

Pesticides are inextricably linked to agriculture; demand for pesticides stems from agricultural development. The performance of the pesticide market each year is closely tied to that year’s agricultural policies, with the two mutually reinforcing and influencing one another. The direction of agricultural policy, in turn, shapes the trajectory of the pesticide market.

Judging from this year’s agricultural policies, the No. 1 Central Document for 2025—titled “Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Further Deepening Rural Reform and Solidly Promoting All-Round Rural Revitalization”—has clearly outlined the annual priorities and policy measures under the framework of “two continuities and four key areas,” with a strong focus on advancing rural revitalization. Notably, this year’s document emphasizes continuously strengthening the capacity to ensure the supply of grain and other critical agricultural products. The recently concluded Two Sessions also placed particular emphasis on agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, while the government work report once again designated agriculture as a top priority—described as a “ballast” and a “stabilizer.” The target of around 1.4 trillion jin in grain output was explicitly included in the report’s projected goals for 2025. With regard to maintaining stable production and secure supplies of key agricultural commodities, the report adopted an approach of “steady progress within stability.” It calls for stabilizing the area sown to grain, ensuring both the preservation of arable land and the stabilization of market expectations. Such favorable developments are creating new opportunities for the growth of the pesticide industry and the prosperity of its market. However, given the rapidly evolving domestic and international economic landscape, China’s pesticide market remains highly susceptible to external shocks. Many experts have offered forecasts through conferences and media outlets, yet opinions remain divided, with no clear consensus; some descriptions—reminiscent of mist, rain, or wind—leave much open to interpretation.

How can we accurately assess the current state of China’s pesticide market? Against the backdrop of continuously strengthening our capacity to ensure the supply of grain and other key agricultural products, what will be the future trajectory of the pesticide market? And what form will the pesticide industry take by 2025? Can the agrochemical sector boldly lead the way in deepening rural reform and steadily advancing the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas? In the ongoing effort to bolster supply‑security capabilities and safeguard national food security, what role should pesticide companies play? Here, the author shares some personal insights, seeking constructive feedback from colleagues.

I. An Overview of China’s Pesticide Market

As an industry closely tied to agriculture—reaping prosperity when agriculture prospers and suffering when it falters—the agrochemical sector has weathered significant market turbulence in recent years. Particularly in 2024, amid the accelerating pace of unprecedented global changes, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has united and led the entire Party and all ethnic groups across the country, responding calmly to challenges, adopting a multi‑pronged approach, and implementing comprehensive policies. By striving to mitigate the adverse impacts of both domestic and international headwinds and actively addressing various risks and challenges, China has ensured steady and healthy economic growth, maintaining overall stability while continuing to move forward with vigor and vitality. The agrochemical industry is an indispensable component of China’s economic development. In 2024, the sector proactively confronted diverse challenges, accelerated transformation and upgrading, enhanced economic efficiency, and improved operational quality, thereby sustaining an overall positive trajectory. Supported by a series of favorable policies and measures introduced by the Party and the state to advance agricultural modernization, China’s agrochemical industry has vigorously promoted new forms of productive forces, worked to overcome persistent obstacles, and, amid a complex interplay of difficulties and challenges, shifted toward high‑quality development. Today, China’s annual agrochemical output exceeds 3 million tons, making it one of the world’s leading producers. In 2024, the country’s production of active ingredients for chemical pesticides reached 3.675 million tons, up 22.2% year on year, with notable increases across insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, and other categories. Overall, China’s agrochemical market exhibits the following characteristics:

(1) The pesticide market remains generally sluggish, with selling prices for most products trending downward. In 2024, prices have largely been on a downward trajectory, with certain products and formulations experiencing particularly rapid declines—some even recording successive price cuts. Overall, the prices of mainstream varieties are now below last year’s levels, with nearly 30% of most product categories seeing price reductions.

From a product‑type perspective, insecticide prices have declined, with the exception of certain formulations used to control rice brown planthoppers—such as imidacloprid and chlorpyrifos—which saw price increases during periods of heavy infestation. Herbicide and fungicide prices have also fallen. Meanwhile, imported pesticide prices have risen by approximately 1%. By crop category, pesticides associated with oilseed crops have decreased, while those linked to rice have experienced a slight uptick.

Looking at the pesticide market sales price index, prices remained relatively low in the first quarter. It was only after a slight market rebound in March that prices began to edge up. With preparations for spring plowing underway, demand picked up somewhat, and by mid-to-late April, prices reached their highest level of the first half of the year—particularly for pesticides, where price adjustments were more pronounced, with many companies raising prices and strong sales performance compared to earlier periods. Nevertheless, overall price levels remained subdued. Once the spring‑plowing season ended, the market cooled again, and from May through July, pesticide prices continued to decline without significant respite. Since the second half of the year, conditions have shown little improvement, as domestic demand remains weak. Even in winter—the traditional time for “winter stockpiling”—downstream purchasing enthusiasm has been lackluster. By the end of December, the raw‑material price index for pesticides had fallen to 73.07 points, down 9.78% year on year. Over the course of the year, 65% of pesticide prices registered declines. For example, imidacloprid, once hailed as one of the “insecticides of the century,” fetched over one million yuan per ton when it first hit the market in 1996; today, its raw‑material price has retreated to around 74,000 yuan, representing an average drop of nearly 40%.

(2) The overall market size is excessively large, with pronounced supply–demand imbalances and severe structural distortions, resulting in serious overcapacity. At present, the national pesticide market has undergone significant changes in its supply–demand dynamics, generally characterized by oversupply and structural misalignment. In terms of supply, China now has roughly 1,000 pesticide manufacturers, with annual production of chemical active ingredients exceeding 3 million tons, making it one of the world’s largest producers and consumers of pesticides. On the demand side, domestic annual requirements remain stable at around 230,000 to 250,000 tons, meaning that market supply far outstrips demand. Meanwhile, the demand structure is shifting: traditional formulations are in surplus, while certain high‑efficacy, low‑toxicity products and novel formulations are in short supply. Farmers’ preference for new, high‑efficacy, low‑toxicity, environmentally friendly pesticides—particularly biopesticides—has increased by approximately 18%, whereas demand for conventional insecticides has declined by about 12%. At the same time, farmers increasingly favor moderately priced imported herbicides and organophosphate insecticides such as dichlorvos.

(3) Intense involution and escalating competition. China’s pesticide market is experiencing supply–demand imbalances and structural contradictions: supply is expanding too rapidly, while demand is not keeping pace; there is a shortage of high‑efficiency, eco‑friendly, and non‑polluting new‑generation pesticides, while traditional products are severely oversupplied. As a result, market competition has intensified, with price cuts becoming a key—often the primary—competitive strategy, driving down price levels and, in some regions, inevitably giving rise to a degree of excessive competition. The pesticide market is fraught with intense rivalry, with price wars intensifying and severe intra‑industry involution. Overall, the current state of China’s pesticide market is cause for concern.

In summary, the pesticide market in 2024 remains broadly unstable, with volatile changes in both volume and prices and a pronounced imbalance between supply and demand. Overcapacity, depressed pricing, and mounting structural imbalances are becoming increasingly acute, while market competition continues to intensify, leading to severe internal rivalry and pushing prices to rock-bottom levels. So, where will China’s pesticide market head in the future?

II. A Basic Assessment of China’s Pesticide Market This Year

This year’s No. 1 Central Document emphasizes the need to continuously strengthen the capacity to ensure the supply of grain and other key agricultural products, calling for vigorous efforts to stabilize production and secure supplies of grain and essential agricultural commodities, thereby ensuring sustained, steady growth in national grain output and the production of important agricultural goods and safeguarding national food security. The Government Work Report further underscores the commitment to “upholding the priority development of agriculture and rural areas, drawing on the experience of the ‘Ten‑Million Project,’ improving systems that support agriculture, benefit farmers, and enrich rural communities, and making every possible effort to boost agricultural profitability, invigorate rural areas, and increase farmers’ incomes.” It lays out a comprehensive plan for the year’s “three rural” work across three key areas: continuously enhancing the capacity to ensure stable production and supply of grain and other critical agricultural products; unwaveringly consolidating and expanding the achievements made in poverty alleviation; and steadily advancing rural reform and development. Pesticides play a crucial role in this ongoing effort to bolster the supply‑security capacity of grain and other vital agricultural products.

Pesticides are a specialized commodity, and their usage levels depend heavily on the development of agriculture and the severity of pest and disease outbreaks. The prospects for robust growth in China’s pesticide industry are closely tied to the agricultural sector. As a major agricultural country, China continues to prioritize agricultural development, and pesticides—key inputs in agricultural production—play an indispensable role in this process. Only a thriving agricultural sector can drive the prosperity of the pesticide industry. Consequently, the future trajectory of China’s pesticide market is inextricably linked to the current economic landscape, particularly the state of the agricultural economy. Let us begin by analyzing the prevailing economic conditions and the agricultural situation.

In 2024, China’s gross domestic product surpassed 130 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 134.9084 trillion yuan, up 5.0% year on year at constant prices. Agricultural production remained generally stable, with grain output hitting another record high, and the value added of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increasing by 3.7% compared with the previous year. Since the beginning of this year, China’s economy has maintained steady progress, with solid strides in high-quality development. In 2025, China’s economy is expected to continue growing steadily; barring any major unforeseen developments in the international economic and political environment or large-scale severe natural disasters and other significant domestic challenges, GDP growth could remain around 5% or close to that level. Overall, China’s economy boasts a solid foundation, numerous strengths, strong resilience, and substantial potential, and the underlying conditions and fundamental trends supporting its long-term improvement remain unchanged. Consequently, China’s economy will continue to advance in 2025 and over the coming period, creating new market opportunities and a relatively favorable environment for the pesticide industry. Under the influence of a sound and healthy macroeconomic framework, Chinese agriculture is showing a robust recovery trend.

Since 2024, China has continued to implement a series of preferential policies to promote agricultural development, including the abolition of the agricultural tax, grain‑production subsidies, high‑quality seed subsidies, fertilizer subsidies, and subsidies for the purchase of large agricultural machinery. These measures have effectively boosted farmers’ enthusiasm for farming, sustaining an agricultural growth rate of 3.7%. In 2024, China once again enjoyed a bumper harvest, with total grain output reaching 1.413 trillion jin—up 22.18 billion jin, or 1.6%, from the previous year. Building on nine consecutive years of stable production above 1.3 trillion jin, output has, for the first time, surpassed the 1.4 trillion jin mark. The nationwide area sown to grain totaled 1.79 billion mu, an increase of 5.258 million mu, or 0.3%, marking the fifth consecutive year of expansion. Farmers’ incomes have risen sharply, with per capita net income continuing to grow; rural residents’ per capita disposable income reached 23,119 yuan, up 6.6% in nominal terms and 6.3% in real terms after adjusting for price changes. At present, China is further deepening rural reforms and making solid progress in achieving all‑round rural revitalization, resulting in a favorable outlook for agricultural development and sustained strong momentum. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, what will be the future trajectory of China’s pesticide market in 2025?

First, the overall supply of pesticides is ample, resulting in a surplus. This year, prices are expected to remain broadly stable with only minor fluctuations. Compared with recent years, the pace of price reductions is likely to moderate slightly, but any rebound will be limited, with stability taking precedence, as prices have already fallen repeatedly and are now near their lowest levels. By 2025, total pesticide demand is projected to rise modestly from 2024 levels. Specifically, demand for acaricides is expected to continue increasing; herbicide demand will keep growing; and demand for plant growth regulators will see a slight uptick. Market opportunities for insecticides and fungicides are expanding, while rodenticide demand is expected to remain broadly unchanged. This outlook reflects the anticipated intensification of pest and disease pressures on major grain and oilseed crops—such as wheat, rice, and corn—in 2025, with the affected area projected to reach 345 million mu (according to forecasts from authoritative agencies).

The overall forecast for China’s pesticide market is as follows: by 2025, the total volume of pesticides used in crop production will stabilize at around 250,000 tons. Among these, chemical pesticide use is expected to continue declining, with the primary reduction occurring in insecticides, while herbicide and fungicide usage will remain on an upward trajectory. Meanwhile, the use of biopesticides is also projected to increase slightly.

From the perspective of the composition of pesticide‑use categories, herbicides will continue to account for the largest share, followed by insecticides and fungicides, with these three major categories dominating the market. Looking ahead, the overall trend in the pesticide market is a gradual increase in total supply coupled with declining demand and limited growth, leading to an oversupply and intensifying competition. Moreover, given the significant variations across regions in agricultural conditions and ecological environments, demand for pesticides differs markedly from one area to another, resulting in distinct supply‑and‑demand dynamics in each market. It cannot be ruled out that, in certain localities and during specific periods, the market may experience a modest upturn—building momentum for improvement—with overall price levels remaining stable while edging slightly higher.

Second, opportunities for the pesticide market will arise from the following factors: the continued strengthening of capacity to ensure the supply of grain and other key agricultural products; the effective implementation of government policies supporting agriculture; rising farmer enthusiasm for farming; and increasing farm incomes—all of which will further boost demand in the pesticide market. Ensuring the stable supply of grain and other essential agricultural commodities has become a top priority, and food security has emerged as the primary issue that the Chinese government seeks to address. To safeguard the supply of grain and critical agricultural products, the government must persist in and refine policies that incentivize farmers to grow crops, thereby significantly enhancing their motivation to do so. In some regions, where farmers previously cultivated only one rice crop per year, this year they are switching to two rice crops, leading to a higher multiple-cropping index. All these developments are contributing to an increase in pesticide usage.

Experts estimate that, of last year’s increase in grain production, 70% was attributable to expanded planting area, while the remaining 30% stemmed from increased applications of fertilizers and pesticides. As agricultural support policies are further implemented and crop‑planting areas continue to expand, rural demand for pesticides in China is expected to rise further. By 2025, significant usage is anticipated for insecticides and acaricides such as dichlorvos, lime sulfur, phoxim, imidacloprid, pymetrozine, Bacillus thuringiensis, thiamethoxam, triflumizole, emamectin benzoate–indoxacarb, spinosad, and methoxyfenozide; fungicides including copper sulfate, carbendazim, mancozeb, thiophanate‑methyl, tebuconazole, tricyclazole, chlorothalonil, prochloraz, isoprothiolane, triazolone, flusilazole, fluopyram, propiconazole, cyproconazole, epoxiconazole, pyraclostrobin, and zinc thiazole; and herbicides such as glyphosate, acetochlor, atrazine, glufosinate, butachlor, bentazon, metolachlor, 2,4‑D, pretilachlor, pendimethalin, pyrazosulfuron‑ethyl, florasulam, triasulfuron, benzobicycloheptadiene, benzofluorone, cyclosulfamid, sulfoxaflor, halosulfuron‑methyl, and cyhalofop‑butyl.

Ethephon, paclobutrazol, mepiquat chloride, chlormequat chloride, gibberellic acid, thidiazuron, uniconazole, brassinolide, aminocyclopyrachlor, cyanamide, triacontanol, coronatine, calcium chloroacetate, and ferrous protochlorophyllide—among other plant growth regulators—are worthy of attention, while immune‑inducing agents such as Verticillium dahliae are expected to see increased use. Going forward, the state’s “Three Rural Issues” policies will continue to be rolled out, providing long‑term favorable support for demand in the pesticide market.

Third, the future development trend of China’s pesticide market will be as follows: ecologically friendly, highly efficient, low‑toxicity or non‑toxic, and low‑residue pesticides will enjoy strong demand, and the green pesticide market holds tremendous potential. At present, global pesticide production is shifting toward ecological sustainability, high efficiency, low toxicity or non‑toxicity, and reduced residue levels. Meanwhile, China faces a significant market gap in the segment of highly efficient, low‑toxicity or non‑toxic, low‑residue pesticides.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that, effective June 1, 2024, the registration of formulations containing omethoate, carbofuran, methomyl, and aldicarb will be revoked, and their production will be prohibited. Furthermore, starting June 1, 2026, these highly toxic pesticides will also be completely banned from sale and use. China’s comprehensive ban on the use of highly toxic pesticides in agricultural production is expected to result in the withdrawal of approximately 90,000 to 100,000 tons of such pesticides from the domestic market by the end of 2026, while international restrictions will further reduce the total volume of exports of these highly toxic pesticides. Some estimates suggest that the phase-out of highly toxic pesticides will create a gap of RMB 10 billion in the domestic agrochemical market.

In terms of the composition of pesticide types, significant improvements have been made to address previous imbalances: the share of chemical pesticides has declined, while that of biopesticides has risen. By 2025, the use of highly toxic and persistent pesticides is expected to drop substantially, whereas demand for ecological, highly efficient, and low‑toxicity pesticides will increase markedly—examples include pyrethroids, pyridines, pyrimidines, and insect growth regulators. Due to the emergence of resistance in rice planthoppers to imidacloprid‑based products, demand for such agents continues to fall, while the need for thiamethoxam (Pusiling, Daoshijing), dichlorvos, and isoprocarb (Ye Chansan) for controlling rice planthoppers has risen noticeably. Meanwhile, the application of biopesticides in vegetable and fruit crops is set to grow substantially; promising candidates include Bacillus thuringiensis, Jinggangmycin, Avermectin, Matrine, Kasugamycin, Cotton Bollworm Nuclear Polyhedrosis Virus, Bacillus subtilis, Gibberellins, Ethyl Salicylate, and Nuclear Polyhedrosis Virus. Consequently, the development of alternatives to highly toxic pesticides and of biopesticides is bound to become a major focus of China’s pesticide research and innovation, with exceptionally broad market prospects. Indeed, since the beginning of this year, several high‑efficacy, low‑toxicity varieties and novel formulations have been in short supply, with strong sales of new, low‑toxicity products, innovative formulations, as well as herbicides and fungicides. Moreover, the use of biopesticides in vegetables, fruit trees, tea, and other crops has continued to expand.

Fourth, the fundamental trend of China’s pesticide exports in the future will be as follows: international pesticide prices are expected to stabilize, the market will halt its decline and begin to steady, and demand is likely to undergo a critical turning point—after two consecutive years of decline, it will gradually strengthen. This development will, in turn, boost China’s pesticide exports. According to the preliminary projections in the Food Outlook report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on June 13, 2024, global food import expenditures are forecast to rise by 2.5% in 2024, surpassing US$2 trillion. The report also anticipates that, from 2024 to 2025, supplies of most major food commodities worldwide will remain ample; however, it warns that extreme weather events, escalating geopolitical tensions, and abrupt policy shifts could disrupt the global supply‑demand balance, thereby affecting food prices and global food security.

Moreover, some experts contend that in recent years, major international grain, cotton, and soybean markets have repeatedly experienced a situation of production falling short of demand and sustained inventory declines. The reduction in grain inventories coupled with rising prices will lay a solid foundation for growing global demand for agricultural pesticides. As we move into 2025, the continued rise in corn prices is expected to spur an expansion of acreage devoted to corn and other crops; U.S. corn and Brazilian soybean planting areas are projected to increase. According to USDA forecasts, global grain production will continue to expand in 2025, driving higher demand for fertilizers and pesticides. However, with limited new pesticide‑production capacity coming online and underutilized operating rates, global pesticide‑production capacity growth is anticipated to slow by 2025, leaving ample opportunities in the international market—particularly given that the global crop‑protection market is valued at US$70 billion.

From an international perspective, several Asian countries and regions with close economic ties to China have experienced a relatively rapid recovery, which is conducive to the steady growth of pesticide exports. In recent years, developed countries have seen a contraction in their pesticide industries due to sluggish economic growth, rising production costs, and stringent requirements for energy consumption and environmental protection. At the same time, mature markets are under pressure, while the potential of emerging markets is becoming increasingly evident; in some developed and developing economies—such as the United States, Brazil, and India—the demand for pesticide products has been growing. In particular, as the global economy enters a phase of recovery, pesticide demand in certain countries and regions is expected to pick up by 2025. Since the onset of spring this year, demand for pesticides has increased in some countries, leading to a widening supply gap. Overall, if international pesticide prices remain higher than domestic prices, this will likely boost China’s pesticide exports.

III. Issues and Challenges Facing China’s Pesticide Industry

This year is one in which agrochemical companies face both risks and opportunities. By 2025, the agrochemical market will enjoy ample overall supply, with no severe shortages likely to disrupt agricultural production. However, due to substantial overcapacity domestically, the market will remain oversupplied, keeping price competition and product‑category rivalry intensely fierce. While it is encouraging to see that bolstering the capacity to ensure the supply of grain and other key agricultural products bodes well for the future of China’s agrochemical market, we must also recognize clearly that the industry will continue to confront a series of serious challenges:

First is the challenge of rising costs and declining profits. Increases in labor expenses, product‑sales costs, raw material prices, electricity, fuel, and transportation costs remain unabated, becoming a major driver of higher pesticide production costs. In particular, rising labor costs, sales expenses, natural gas prices, and domestic oil prices further constrain efforts to reduce costs. Moreover, certain policies—and factors beyond policy—exacerbate these challenges, leaving pesticide manufacturers grappling with mounting cost pressures and shrinking profit margins.

Second, there are challenges in structural adjustment. Traditional pesticide products on the market have reached saturation or even oversupply, while there remains a significant gap in the development of new, eco‑efficient, low‑toxicity varieties and formulations. Although conventional pesticides continue to meet the needs of pest and disease control, their product mix is suboptimal, and the share of environmentally friendly, green pesticides still requires further expansion. With the rapid growth of green agriculture—and growing public concern over the environmental pollution caused by highly toxic, persistent‑residue pesticides—since last year, farmers’ demand for high‑efficiency, low‑toxicity, non‑polluting new‑generation pesticides, particularly biopesticides, has been steadily increasing. Consequently, the demand for such products continues to rise, with biopesticides now becoming the mainstream choice in new‑pesticide registrations, as evidenced by the year‑on‑year increase in registration numbers. In some regions, shortages of eco‑efficient, low‑toxicity pesticides have emerged, leading to a substantial surge in imports of these products.

Third is the challenge of market disorder. The chaotic state of the pesticide market has long remained unresolved, with competition characterized by a lack of order. Over the years, the pesticide market has undergone significant changes; digital and intelligent platforms have grown rapidly and now command a substantial share. Manufacturers leverage the advantages of direct sales and mobile internet to actively compete, steadily expanding their market presence. Meanwhile, a diversified competitive landscape—including agricultural supply stores, online retailers, and independent operators—has further muddled the competitive environment. At the same time, counterfeit and substandard pesticides continue to circulate in certain regions; some products fail to meet quality‑standard requirements for active ingredient content, while others are produced without the legally required pesticide registration certificates. Consequently, counterfeit, falsified, or unregistered pesticide products remain a persistent issue.

Fourth is the challenge posed by international shocks. As a major user of agricultural chemicals, China has long been a coveted market for foreign agrochemical firms. In recent years, with the steady development of Chinese agriculture, leading global agrochemical companies have grown increasingly optimistic about the Chinese market and have successively entered it, quietly igniting a fierce competition to capture market share. As China’s reform and opening-up efforts continue to deepen, foreign firms are further expanding their foothold in the domestic agrochemical market, including through the establishment of robust distribution networks. Meanwhile, the post‑COVID‑19 slowdown in global economic growth, a marked deceleration in world trade, the escalating U.S.–China trade war and rising protectionist trends, the accelerating restructuring of the international economic landscape—marked by shifting power dynamics among major developed economies—and the advent of the new Trump administration, along with mounting uncertainties in the global economy, have all contributed to a situation where domestic agrochemical products struggle to gain traction in international markets, while foreign products increasingly exert pressure on the domestic market.

IV. Measures to Address Changes and Challenges in the Pesticide Market

At present, as the unprecedented changes of the past century accelerate and the global economic recovery remains sluggish, coupled with the new circumstances and developments China has entered since 2025, we must adopt a dialectical perspective in assessing the current situation and challenges. We should both recognize the prospects to bolster confidence and acknowledge the myriad risks in order to respond appropriately. Most importantly, under today’s conditions, how Chinese agrochemical enterprises can expand into both domestic and international markets and secure a foothold amid intense competition is a critical issue that demands careful consideration and decisive action. From a macro perspective, the following tasks must be addressed:

First, guided by market demand and driven by the development of new‑type productive forces, we will prioritize the structural adjustment, upgrading, and transformation of the pesticide industry, further optimizing both product and market structures to promote high‑quality industrial growth. With the implementation of the dual‑carbon goals and the tightening of environmental standards, concerns about contamination in China’s agricultural products have drawn widespread attention from the sector. Excessive pesticide residues—particularly in vegetables, fruits, and tea—have not only led to frequent cases of human and animal poisoning but have also become a major obstacle to expanding China’s agricultural export earnings. Consequently, the development and production of alternatives to highly toxic pesticides and of novel biopesticides have become urgent priorities.

Examples include microbial insecticides, neem‑based pesticides, curcuminoids, Bacillus polymyxa P1, Bacillus velezensis C17271, Bacillus velezensis spores, Bt formulations, and jinggangmycin. While food safety concerns and the need to continuously strengthen the supply of essential agricultural products such as grain pose dual challenges, they also present opportunities for a large‑scale, historic upgrading and transformation of China’s pesticide industry. To this end, it is imperative to adopt a market‑oriented approach, proactively address the contradictions and issues arising during the structural adjustment of the pesticide sector, prioritize the development of novel biopesticide products and formulations, accelerate the pace of restructuring, and pursue a strategy that combines growth with phasing out outdated technologies—using advances in cutting‑edge processes to hasten the obsolescence of less efficient ones. By drawing on foreign strategies and measures for quality control in the pesticide industry, we can swiftly elevate the quality of China’s pesticides to a new, higher standard.

Therefore, it is essential to effectively advance the structural adjustment aimed at reducing highly toxic pesticides in China. By continuously optimizing the technological and product mix of the pesticide industry, we can further refine the market structure, ensuring that new‑generation, eco‑friendly, highly efficient, and low‑toxicity pesticides as well as specialty pesticides account for a significant share of production, thereby meeting market demand for such products. At the macro level, this will create favorable market conditions for enhancing the overall competitiveness of the pesticide sector and fostering high‑quality development. Governments at all levels and the competent authorities responsible for pesticides must take concrete measures to strengthen market oversight, accelerate the establishment of a unified national market, and foster an equitable competitive environment for all pesticide operators, thus ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of the pesticide market.

Second, with the goal of strengthening and expanding through high-quality development, aiming to participate in international competition, and seeking breakthroughs in competitiveness, we will actively deepen enterprise reform and build leading agrochemical companies. At present, China has over 1,000 agrochemical producers—numerous, widely dispersed, small in scale, and lacking both the resilience to withstand market volatility and the capacity to compete on the global stage. As is well known, corporate groupings help leverage economies of scale and scope, enable broader utilization of economic resources and market opportunities, and pave the way for sustainable development. Meanwhile, as China further expands reform and opening-up, foreign capital may flow into the domestic new‑pesticide sector. It is therefore imperative to foster high‑quality enterprise groups and provide policy support, so as to harness their resource advantages and competitive edge.

If, during the process of transformation and upgrading, we adopt a market‑oriented approach and base our strategies on resource allocation at the regional and even national levels, we can gradually achieve economies of scale in the agrochemical industry, establish strong regional agrochemical enterprises, and form a robust, coordinated industry cluster. This would place us in a favorable position in international competition. At the same time, it is essential to invigorate small and medium‑sized agrochemical firms by implementing internal reforms and innovative mechanisms, enabling them to thrive in a competitive market. To this end, we recommend that relevant national authorities introduce supportive policies to foster the development of agrochemical enterprises, encourage mergers and restructurings, and channel capital resources toward leading companies, thereby strengthening China’s agrochemical sector.

Third, we must substantially increase the openness of the agrochemical sector, implement a market diversification strategy, and adopt multiple channels and measures to boost China’s pesticide exports. At present, Chinese pesticide products are exported to markets across the globe. According to recently released data from the General Administration of Customs, in 2024, China recorded import and export transactions with nearly all countries and regions classified under the United Nations’ statistical groupings; moreover, exports to more than 160 countries and regions expanded. Data from the General Administration of Customs further show that in 2024, China’s total export value surpassed RMB 25 trillion for the first time, reaching RMB 25.45 trillion—a year-on-year increase of 7.1%—marking eight consecutive years of growth. In 2024, pesticide exports accounted for as much as 85% of China’s total production (though declining international prices significantly squeezed profit margins). Among the 160-plus markets driving this growth, the majority of shipments were directed to Southeast Asia, the European Union, South America, and other key regions. However, different markets exhibit distinct demand profiles for agrochemical products. For instance, in the first half of last year, the share of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides in China’s export mix underwent substantial shifts. Therefore, it is imperative to align with international market conditions, thoroughly assess the principal challenges and development potential facing China’s agrochemical export sector, capitalize on opportunities while mitigating risks, and strengthen both competitive edge and risk resilience.

The primary issue facing China’s pesticide industry in terms of exports is the low‑end nature of its product mix. Pesticide products are characterized by low technological content and limited value added; coupled with an outdated range of formulations and varieties that fail to keep pace with rapidly evolving market trends, their competitiveness in the international marketplace remains weak. For instance, although export volumes are substantial, the low technical sophistication and minimal value added of these products result in a significant price gap compared with international market levels. Furthermore, pesticide firms often operate under inflexible management systems, lack effective channels for gathering market intelligence, and respond sluggishly to shifts in global supply‑and‑demand dynamics. At the same time, there is a shortage of trade professionals who are well‑versed in World Trade Organization rules.

Therefore, in response to the aforementioned challenges, it is imperative to adopt effective measures to foster the sound development of foreign trade. To enhance the prospects for China’s pesticide exports, we must continuously raise the technological content and quality of our products, thereby increasing the value added of export goods, while also refining packaging standards. Furthermore, we should establish robust sales networks in international markets and actively expand into new overseas markets; for instance, partnering with foreign firms to register products abroad can enable us to leverage each other’s strengths and mitigate weaknesses, securing substantial profits while reducing investment risks. In addition, we must invest in building globally recognized pesticide brands and cultivate world‑class international brand identities—such as directly registering products overseas or establishing overseas subsidiaries. At the same time, we should persist in pursuing a market diversification strategy, maintaining traditional markets while flexibly employing diverse trade mechanisms to tap into emerging markets.

Furthermore, achieving economies of scale is a key factor in unlocking the export potential of China’s agrochemical industry; attention should be paid to fostering large enterprise groups. It is recommended that relevant state departments and the agrochemical association actively assist enterprises in rigorously pursuing anti-dumping measures, continue to strengthen support for agrochemical exporters, and intensify efforts to rectify market order, guiding agrochemical firms from disorderly competition toward orderly competition. At the same time, agrochemical companies themselves must substantially enhance their marketing capabilities, accelerate the development of marketing departments, digital‑intelligence platforms, sales teams, and distribution networks, adopt a market‑oriented approach, leverage digital and intelligent tools, integrate online and offline channels, proactively respond to market dynamics, and gain a deep understanding of market trends and patterns. By speeding up marketing innovation and leveraging their managerial strengths, superior product quality, and high‑level service, they can consolidate existing market positions, capture new opportunities, and expand their market share.

Looking ahead to 2025, the further deepening of rural reforms, the steady advancement of all‑round rural revitalization, the drive toward agricultural modernization, and the building of a strong agricultural nation will usher in new development opportunities for China’s pesticide industry. Continuously strengthening the capacity to ensure the supply of grain and other key agricultural products will significantly benefit both the pesticide industry and its market. It is foreseeable that this year’s market and industry prospects will far surpass those of 2024. Nevertheless, the pesticide sector still faces substantial challenges, and volatility and risks remain unavoidable. By seizing emerging trends and capitalizing on opportunities while mitigating risks, we are certain to see the arrival of a vibrant spring for the pesticide industry.

(Author: Han Yongqi)

Note: This article draws on data from reports issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the General Administration of Customs, the China Pesticide Industry Association, and other sources, as well as on the full text of the No. 1 Central Document for 2025 and the 2025 Government Work Report.

References:

1. Li Qiang. Report on the Work of the Government—Delivered on March 5, 2025, at the Third Session of the 14th National People’s Congress. People’s Daily, March 13, 2025, Page 1.

2. Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Further Deepening Rural Reform and Solidly Promoting All-Round Rural Revitalization, Economic Daily, February 24, 2025, Page 1

3. Zhang Anyu, Sun Haitian. “Development Inside and Outside the Congress—Focusing Wholeheartedly on High-Quality Development” (Direct from the Two Sessions). People’s Daily, March 7, 2025, Page 3.

4. Zhao Tonglu, Wei Fenghua, Zhang Yi, et al. China’s Economy Maintains Steady Progress—A Commentary by Officials from Relevant Departments of the National Bureau of Statistics on Key Economic Data for 2024. Economic Daily, January 18, 2025.

5. Zou Duowei. In 2024, China’s exports to more than 160 countries and regions increased. China Daily, January 31, 2025.

6. Liu Qin. At the 38th China Plant Protection Dual-Trade Fair, the Pest and Disease Control Division of the National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center announced the crop varieties that account for a large share of pesticide usage. Agricultural Inputs Herald, November 22, 2024.

Source: Agricultural Inputs and Market Official WeChat Account