Examining the Current Situation Facing China’s Agrochemical Industry Through the Lens of Thiamethoxam Price Adjustments

- Thiamethoxam demand remains stable, with prices reasonable and a pullback.

- Overbuilding without proper planning does not foster sustainable development, but could relentless internal competition also spur groundbreaking innovation?

- Approach India with a rational perspective, but Chinese agrochemical companies are also calling for favorable policy measures.

Recently, the prices of thiamethoxam and clothianidin have rebounded. Specifically, the market price of thiamethoxam has risen from this year’s April low of RMB 60,000 to the current level of RMB 66,000, while major manufacturers have collectively ceased quoting prices. Industry observers anticipate a trend toward a renewed climb above RMB 70,000.

Breaking it down further, for the two key intermediates of thiamethoxam, the oxadiazine plant is quoting RMB 40,000, with transactions at RMB 35,000—near a historic low—while the CCMT plant is offering RMB 35,000, surpassing the previous record low reached in 2015. Both of these N‑1 intermediates have already bottomed out, so the current price increase should be viewed as a corrective rebound from that low.

According to incomplete statistics, the production capacities of thiamethoxam and its key intermediates are as follows: China’s installed capacity for thiamethoxam is nearly 30,000 tons, with an overall operating rate this year expected to approach 50%; India’s installed capacity stands at around 10,500 tons, with Deccan achieving an operating rate of 60% this year (primarily through custom manufacturing), while other Indian producers maintain relatively low utilization rates.

The thiamethoxam industry chain is characterized by a relatively concentrated production capacity for intermediates: both CCMT and oxadiazine are primarily supplied by three to four leading Chinese companies, and India’s demand for these two key intermediates is also largely met by Chinese sources.

According to feedback from Indian market research, during the 2022–2023 period, India imported 8,600 tonnes each of CCMT and oxadiazine over a 12‑month span, with import volumes remaining relatively stable. Regardless of whether the source country was China or elsewhere, the ultimate production base was almost invariably China. The survey indicates that India exported nearly 4,000 tonnes of thiamethoxam technical grade via Deccan, while other companies accounted for an additional 4,300 tonnes; another 1,000 tonnes were destined for the domestic market. Overall, India’s total production stands at around 10,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s thiamethoxam exports, expressed in terms of 100% active ingredient, are estimated at 8,000–10,000 tonnes, with domestic demand hovering around 2,000 tonnes. In summary, global annual demand for thiamethoxam is approximately 20,000–25,000 tonnes and has remained broadly stable over the long term. Brazil currently represents the largest market for thiamethoxam; should it be banned, this would essentially signal the end of the product’s commercial viability.

Although most intermediates are sourced by India from China, reader feedback indicates that Indian procurement prices are even lower than domestic market prices in China. Consequently, India’s thiamethoxam is no less competitive on the international market than China’s. The underlying reasons are:

1. Our exporters pass the tax rebate and price concessions on to customers; for example, a product priced at RMB 30,000 in China may be purchased by Indian buyers at RMB 27,000.

2. This is due to overall overcapacity in China and the widespread prevalence of redundant infrastructure projects; as downward market pressures continue to mount, enterprises are facing mounting survival challenges.

According to preliminary statistics from AgroPages, since 2019, more than 300 pesticide products in China have been subject to investment‑construction applications. By this year, an increasing number of these projects are likely reaching the stage of completion and commissioning, ushering in another wave of overcapacity. Coupled with the global economic downturn and the Western‑led “restructuring” of supply chains, Chinese companies are facing mounting pressure. The industry is calling for thorough assessments and prudent planning to minimize excessive redundant capacity; it also urges policy adjustments to help the agrochemical sector navigate these challenges. Of course, intense internal competition may also accelerate technological innovation, compound discovery, and industrial restructuring within China’s pesticide sector.

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